Romania: Competition Among The Four Largest Operators Is Set To Intensify As The Market Moves To Convergent Services

Summary In 2015, Romania will be the fourth-largest telecom services market in Central and Eastern Europe - after Russia, Poland and Czech Republic - with estimated revenue of $3.1bn (RON 12.3bn), or 1.7% of nominal GDP. Revenue growth between 2014 and 2015 is estimated at 0.5% in local currency, mostly driven by mobile data and pay-TV services. Pyramid Research forecasts a service revenue CAGR of 0.3% between 2015 and 2020 in local currency in Romania (1.8% CAGR in $ due to currency appreciation). Fixed revenue will continue to decline through to 2020 thus offsetting the projected growth in mobile and pay-TV revenue. Total service revenue will stand at $3.4bn (RON12.5bn) in Romania in 2020 and mobile services will continue to dominate over fixed services with a 64% share of total revenue at the end of the forecast period. The major driver of revenue growth will be the customer migration to fiber, VDSL and LTE networks, along with the adoption of triple or quad-play offers Key Findings Continuous 4G service adoption and the development of the M2M market will offer a significant opportunity to win market share. MVNOs entered the market in 2015 and could increase price competition and gain market share over the next years. Fixed circuit switched revenue will fall at CAGR of 23.0% in local currency during 2015-2020, due to further fixed to mobile traffic substitution and the ongoing line migration to VoIP services. In 2017, revenues from VoIP services are expected to overtake circuit-switched revenues and reach RON 542m ($146m) in 2020, claiming 75% of the market fixed voice revenue - thanks to the upgrade of PSTN telephony to VoIP standards, as planned for completion by the incumbent Telekom Romania by 2018. Adoption of 3G technologies is at 55.3% of the mobile subscription base in 2015; Pyramid Research projects this will decline in the forecast period to 41.7%, due to gradual switch to 4G. LTE subscriptions will reach 12.4m by year-end 2020, 46.4% of total mobile subscriptions in Romania. The growth is driven by operator investment in 4G and the increasing demand for fast mobile broadband Internet and modern smartphones. The number of fixed broadband lines will grow from 4.4m in 2015 to 5.1m in 2020 and FTTH/B will account for the largest share of net additions through 2020. Romania aims to achieve 100% broadband household coverage at 30Mbps download speed by 2020 and 50% of households having access to broadband services of over 100Mbps download speed. Synopsis Romania: Competition Among The Four Largest Operators Is Set To Intensify As The Market Moves To Convergent Services” provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into the Romanian telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Researchs databases. It provides in-depth analysis of the following: Romania in a regional context; a comparative review of market size and trends with that of other countries in the Central and Eastern Europe region Economic, demographic and political context in Romania The regulatory environment and trends; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability, and more A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV markets The service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of overall revenue by fixed/pay-TV and mobile sectors and by voice, data and video in the current year as well as the end of the forecast period The competitive landscape; an examination of key trends in competition and service providers performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next 18-24 months An in-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice and data services, and pay-TV services; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the telecommunications and pay-TV markets in Romania Reasons To Buy Provides in-depth analysis of current business strategies and future trends of the Romanian telecommunications and pay-TV market, service providers and key opportunities based on insights directly from the local market players in a concise format. Offers executives understanding of the factors behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Romania mobile communications, fixed telephony and broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares, to align product offerings and build proactive growth strategies to meet customers demand. The competitive landscape and the major players in the markets are given extra attention, enabling local players or prospective market entrants to gain the insight they need. The broad but detailed perspective will help telecom industry players to succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Romania. The report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality that allows it to be turned into presentable material immediately. The report concludes with an exploration of the opportunities available in the Romanian market to operators, vendors and investors.