Spain: Telecom Market Declines, but MVNO Growth and LTE Deployments Offer Hope

Summary The Spanish communications market generated $29.0bn in 2012. This was 8% less than the previous year, as Spain continues to suffer the adverse effects of a weak macroeconomic environment. However, we expect the sector to grow again between 2015 and 2018. The main revenue growth drivers will be fiber-based services on the fixed side and the MVNO and M2M segments on the mobile side. Key Findings The Spanish communications market generated €22.6bn ($29.0bn) in 2012, which represented an 8% decline year-on-year. Due to the prolonged economic recession, which is forecast to last another two years in Spain, we expect the communications market service revenue to rebound only in 2015, when it will grow (in local currency terms) 2.3%. However, despite the market declines forecast for the next two years, the communications industry will still generate sizable revenue throughout 2018 - a cumulative total of €132.6bn ($168bn) between 2013 and 2018. On the fixed side, the main revenue growth drivers in the second half of the forecast period will be fiber-based services. On the mobile side, growth will be driven by the MVNO and M2M sub-segments, which have expanded remarkably in the past couple of years. Furthermore, with the strong adoption of smartphones and tablets that the Spanish market is experiencing even in this recession, mobile browsing and other mobile applications are poised to be growth engines for the entire communications market. Synopsis NA