The Netherlands: LTE to Drive New Growth as Telecom Market Consolidation Speeds up

Summary The Dutch telecom market generated $16.3bn in service revenue in 2013, 2.3% more than in 2012. Pyramid Research expects market revenue to return to the 2011 level in 2014 and increase to $19.3bn in 2018, growing in US dollar terms at an annual rate of 3.2% in 2013-2018. We expect KPN and Vodafone, as the two operators with the largest product portfolios including 4G services, to maintain their market positions, while Tele2, which has become a 4G network operator, will gain market share but remain a niche player. On the MandA front, we expect more consolidation, opening opportunities for investors. Key Findings The telecom market in the Netherlands generated $16.3bn in service revenue in 2013, 2.3% more than in 2012. Pyramid Research expects total market revenue to return to the 2011 level in 2014 and increase to $19.3bn in 2018, growing in US dollar terms at an annual rate of 3.2% in 2013-2018. Mobile data revenue will be the main growth engine of the Dutch communications sector, expanding at a 13.6% CAGR in 2013-2018 despite declining messaging revenue and growing OTT substitution. In the same period, fixed broadband revenue will grow at a CAGR of 5.3%, as the country will reach a population penetration of 49% in 2018, higher than in the UK, France and Germany. For 2013-2018, we expect KPN and Vodafone, the two operators with the largest product portfolios including 4G services, to maintain their market positions, while Tele2, which has become a 4G network operator, will gain market share but remain a niche player. On the MandA front, we expect more consolidation, opening opportunities for investors. KPN's refusal of América Móvil's $9.7bn acquisition offer does not mean that takeover talks won't resume at a later stage. Dutch cable companies remain primary acquisition targets because of their solid growth prospects and attractive merger opportunities. Synopsis NA