Ecuador: Upgrading to 3.5G, Mobile Operators Are Well-Positioned for Mobile Broadband Growth

Summary Ecuador's telecom and pay-TV markets generated $2.7bn in service revenue in 2012, growing at a 6% CAGR between 2012 and 2017. Most of this revenue has come from the mobile sector. On the fixed side, government control over the incumbent has been a major inhibitor to the development of a competitive marketplace. Mobile operators have an opportunity to meet the unmet demand for broadband and are upgrading to 3.5G. Key Findings Ecuador's telecom and pay-TV markets generated $2.7bn in service revenue in 2012, growing at a 6% CAGR between 2012 and 2017. The majority of this revenue has come from the mobile sector, with voice services and mobile data adding a combined $1.9bn, equivalent to 71% of the total telecom and pay-TV market. In a market characterized by comparatively high mobile penetration by regional standards (114%), mobile voice makes up 53.2% of total service revenues. Although mobile voice will remain the main source of revenue through 2017, mobile voice revenue will decline 0.4% over the forecast period, representing 38.7% of total service revenue in 2017. Driven by mobile broadband, which will increasingly become the primary way of connecting to the Internet, mobile data revenue will more than double in size, growing at an impressive 18.9% CAGR for 2012-2017. Fixed broadband revenue will follow, growing at a 15.0% CAGR over the forecast period, driven primarily by the upgrade and expansion of xDSL infrastructure, which to date is limited to major urban areas. All in all, strong demand for mobile and fixed broadband and a positive macroeconomic environment will drive the expansion of the telecom and pay-TV market, provided that the current political and economic stability continues. Synopsis NA