Russia: Fiber Ambitions to Boost Telecom Market; LTE Rollouts Await Operator Consensus

Summary Russia: Fiber Ambitions to Boost Telecom Market; LTE Rollouts Await Operator Consensus offers a precise, incisive profile of the country's converged telecommunications, media and technology sectors based on proprietary data from our research in the Russian market. It provides detailed competitive analysis of both the fixed and mobile sectors, tracks the market shares of technologies and services, and monitors the introduction and spread of new technologies. Published annually, this executive study provides a comprehensive view of the Russian communications market by analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing upcoming risks factors. Key Findings The Russian telecom market generated $43.4bn (Rb1.3trn) in service revenue in 2012, a 6.1% increase year-on-year in local currency terms. The market continues to be one of the most attractive in CEE, with an estimated CAGR of 4.2% over the next five years, to reach $53.2bn (Rb1.6trn) in 2017. Data services will continue to be the main driver for market growth as operators continue to invest in next-generation networks such as FTTB/GPON and LTE. Over the next five years, we expect mobile data to grow at a CAGR of 11.3%, after Rostelecom joined the Big Three (MTS, MegaFon and Beeline) in offering UMTS/HSPA services in December 2012. In addition, all large operators allocated investments for LTE services deployments, with Beeline and Rostelecom scheduled to launch commercially in 2013. We expect voice services to remain a major revenue source over the forecast period, accounting for slightly less than 60% of total telecom service revenue in 2017. Fixed voice revenue will decline over the next five years, primarily as a result of fixed-to-mobile substitution. The introduction of technology neutrality for universal services provision will put even more pressure on traditional telephony services. Synopsis NA