New technologies such as IP Multimedia Subsystems (IMS) and WiMAX enable one service provider to offer the equivalent of telephone service (landline or mobile) data (T3, T1, DSL, cable modem, cellular broadband, fixed or mobile) and video at a fraction of the infrastructure costs that incumbent service providers (landline telephone, cable TV or cellular) have already invested in their networks. How will incumbents compete? Where do investment opportunities lie in terms of technologies that will be the pillars for the next (and exponentially larger) telecom boom? This publication addresses those issues and offers answers that are critical to incumbents and new entrants as they consider significant investment in network upgrades, new networks, applications and services. In this analysis, Frank Ohrtman evaluates new technologies that will almost certainly force incumbent service providers to invest billions into new infrastructure or face a massive market share losses to new service providers or other service providers who do invest in new technologies to offer an expanded range of services.
Table of Contents
Chapter One: You Can't Be A "One Trick Pony" and Expect to Survive in the Telecom Market of 2012................................................................................................................................................................................. 1
Challenges for Incumbent Telephone Companies.............................................................................................. 5
OPEX........................................................................................................................................................................ 5
CAPEX..................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Cost per Subscriber................................................................................................................................................ 7
Challenges for Cable TV Companies.................................................................................................................... 9
ARPU....................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Mostly Residential................................................................................................................................................. 9
VoIP....................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Challenges for Satellite TV Providers................................................................................................................ 10
CAPEX.................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Limitations............................................................................................................................................................ 10
Challenges for Cell Phone Service Providers................................................................................................... 11
CAPEX.................................................................................................................................................................. 11
OPEX..................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Summary.................................................................................................................................................................... 12
What Happens Next: The Four Big Telecom Technology Trends................................................................ 13
Big Trend #1: IMS - The Basis for Triple and Quadruple Play...................................................................... 14
IMS Vision............................................................................................................................................................ 15
Big Trend #2: VoIP................................................................................................................................................. 16
VoIP Architecture................................................................................................................................................ 18
The Physical Layer: Access via Media Gateways and Other Devices....................................................... 20
The Control Layer: The Softswitch.................................................................................................................. 20
The Session Border Controller (SBC)............................................................................................................... 21
Peer-to-peer Telephony...................................................................................................................................... 23
The Asterisk PBX................................................................................................................................................. 26
Conclusion............................................................................................................................................................ 27
Big Trend #3: IPTV................................................................................................................................................. 28
Mobile TV............................................................................................................................................................. 29
Big Trend #4: Wireless........................................................................................................................................... 31
What is WiMAX?................................................................................................................................................. 32
Fixed WiMAX...................................................................................................................................................... 32
Mobile WiMAX.................................................................................................................................................... 34
WiMAX is not Wi-Fi............................................................................................................................................ 35
WiMAX as compared to LMDS and MMDS................................................................................................. 38
Interference.......................................................................................................................................................... 41
Antenna Technologies and Interference......................................................................................................... 43
Prioritizing Traffic................................................................................................................................................ 45
WiMAX Security...................................................................................................................................................... 46
Four Big Trends Applications or "What will the AWS auction winners do with their new networks?"........................................................................................................................................................................................ 47
PSTN bypass with the Four Big Trends.............................................................................................................. 49
IMS + WiMAX + VoIP - The "killer app" of Three Big Trends....................................................................... 49
Four Big Trends Applications Mobile (IEEE 802.16e-2005)......................................................................... 51
IMS + VoIP + WiMAX = cellular alternative.................................................................................................. 51
Four Big Trends Economics: Compare WiMAX with Other Technologies............................................... 53
Conclusions.................................................................................................................................................................. 54
List of Figures
List of Tables
