Kenya: Operators Prepare for LTE while Mobile Data Drives 3G Expansion

Summary Although the Kenyan telecom market is likely to remain stagnant throughout the forecast period in US dollar terms, it will actually grow steadily in local currency terms as operators jostle for market share. The market generated KSh146bn (US$1.7bn) in local currency in 2012 and it is expected to follow an upward trend at a CAGR of 6% in local currency to KSh194bn (US$1.7bn) in 2017. Competitive tariffs and a battle of promotions continue to drive growth, while Safaricom defends its leadership and Orange and Airtel try to make a bigger push for increased market share through its new 3G networks and mobile money services. Key Findings Although the Kenyan telecom market is likely to remain stagnant throughout the forecast period in US dollar terms, it will actually grow steadily in local currency terms as operators jostle for market share. The market generated KSh146bn (US$1.7bn) in local currency in 2012 and it is expected to follow an upward trend at a CAGR of 6% in local currency to KSh194bn (US$1.7bn) in 2017. Competitive tariffs and a battle of promotions continue to drive growth, while Safaricom defends its leadership and Orange and Airtel try to make a bigger push for increased market share through its new 3G networks and mobile money services. Mobile voice continues to hold the biggest market share in 2012, dominating 63% of the market with revenue of US$1.1bn. Price wars have been a recent trademark of the Kenyan mobile voice segment, and it may happen yet again following further interconnection rate cuts in late 2012. This will push the operators to prioritize their mobile data services, which we project to see the biggest growth between 2012-2017 at a CAGR in local currency of 11% and constituting a 39% share of the entire telecom market revenue by 2017. The biggest decline will come from dial-up Internet revenue, which will only record revenue of $1m in 2012 and will be largely phased out by 2017. Synopsis NA